Mutuals beat majors at main game

Ian Rogers
Bad loans - more than A$9 billion of them - are one resilient detail around Australia's major banks.

They were less than $8 billion not too long ago and the upswing over the December 2019 quarter is a taster of the trouble to come.

The December 2019 APRA ADI data is ancient history now with the advent of Covid-19,  but it's also the latest data in an industry looking sideways and ramping the cost of credit to other banks and financial institutions.

The deposits to assets ratio for major banks, at 61.1 per cent, is about as high as it has ever been, and by the end of March it will be much higher than this.

Probably all banks are losing deposits to big banks and Commonwealth Bank in particular.

Fee income as a per cent of income share is 23 per cent, a secular decline that it will take the elimination of fintechs to slow down - and look how well big banks are doing there.

Payroll, once $6 billon a quarter at big banks has been fought down at the Big Four to the low fives in the December quarter. But between insolvency workouts and remediation and embedded inefficiency, payroll costs will rise from here.

Over at credit unions and mutual banks a combined payroll of $500 million seems cheap for custodians of $22 billion in risk-weighted assets.

The mutual ADI sector's deposits to assets ratio, as resilient as any big bank at 85.4 per cent.