The value of external refinancing of housing loans will soon overtake the value of new lending, if current trends continue. According to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics lending data, the value of new housing loan commitments fell 0.9 per cent in February, compared with the previous month, which is a more modest decline than falls in recent months. The A$22.6 billion of new lending for housing fell 30.9 per cent over the 12 months to February. New lending to owner occupiers was down 1.2 per cent month-on-month and down 30 per cent over 12 months. The value of new lending to residential property investors was down 0.5 per cent month-on-month and down 32.6 per cent over 12 months. Meanwhile, the value of external refinancing rose 2.7 per cent to $19.9 billion in February. External refinancing is up 22.6 per cent over the year. External refinancing for owner occupiers was up 3.5 per cent month-on-month and up 26.4 per cent over 12 months. External refinancing for investors was up 1 per cent month-on-month and up 14.9 per cent over 12 months. External refinancing should continue to grow, as borrowers who took out cheap fixed rate loans in 2020 and 2021 face the prospect of converting to much more expensive variable rates over the next few months. The average loan size for owner occupier dwellings was $585,577. Owner occupier first home buyer activity fell to its lowest level since 2017. The number of new loans to owner occupier first home buyers (7022 in February) has fallen 57 per cent since the peak in January 2021. The latest Reserve Bank data show that lenders mortgages grew by 0.3 per cent in February and by 5.8 per cent over the 12 months to February – the lowest annual growth rate since July 2021.  Owner occupier loan balances were up 0.4 per cent month-on-month and 6.3 per cent over 12 months.  Investor loan balances were up 0.2 per cent month-on-month and 4.8 per cent over 12 months. APRA’s latest figures show that over the three months to February, ANZ and Commonwealth Bank grew their books ahead of system, while NAB and Westpac are losing share.