Economists and money market experts say they would be surprised if the Reserve Bank served up another official rate rise at the June board meeting in Sydney next week. Money markets have priced in no change to the official cash rate following a tide of economic data showing a sharp slowdown in economic activity and rising unemployment. Thirty day bank bill swaps continue to trade at a slight discount to the RBA’s official rate of 3.85 per cent on Tuesday, although 90 day swaps imply that another official rise is likely in August or September. The latest ABS data release on building approvals on Tuesday appeared to harden consensus forecasts signalling no change to official rates next week. Total dwelling approvals fell by 8.1 per cent in April, although there was considerable variation across the country. Approvals were down materially in Queensland (-22.8 per cent) and Victoria ( -18.6 per cent), but the decline was relatively modest in Western Australia (-5.8 per cent).   Tasmania was the only state to report an increase in building approvals – up 3.5 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. In seasonally adjusted terms, the total number of building approvals in April was only 11,594. This is the lowest monthly approvals number reported by ABS since April 2012 when 10,860 were recorded. The data suggest the construction sectors in Queensland and Victoria are primed for contraction in the second half of 2023. Peter Sheahan, director of money markets at Curve Securities, described the April building approvals data as “shocking”. “I think the money markets are pricing in no change to the official cash rate next week, but there is a sixty per cent chance of a hike in August,” he said. “The April building approvals data were shocking – there’s a lag effect at play here and I think builders who might be busy at the moment are finding their forward books are looking ordinary.” Independent economist Stephen Koukoulas said wide-ranging evidence of an economic slowdown had reduced the chance of an official rate hike in June. “You’d have to say they can’t go (with an increase) next week,” he said. “Unemployment is now rising, wages are not accelerating enough to cause an inflationary concern and dwelling approvals in April were the weakest recorded in a decade. “Construction is one of the weakest links in the slowing economy and within another six months we could expect to see an easing in labour costs and employment in the sector.”