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What price Axa now?

10 September 2010 4:40PM
When AMP announced its bid for the Australian and New Zealand business of Axa Asia Pacific on November 9 last year it estimated that the price it was offering would result in an acquisition that was "marginally cash earnings per share accretive by year two".AMP was offering a combination of cash and scrip that priced Axa at 1.2 times embedded value and 16.6 times consensus 2010 earnings forecasts. AMP valued the package at $4 billion and said Axa SA would pick up Axa AP's Asian businesses for a little over $7 billion.National Australia Bank trumped AMP with a $4.6 billion bid, equivalent to $6.43 a share, a month later. It priced its target at 1.4 times embedded value and 19.5 times consensus 2010 earnings forecasts. NAB chief executive Cameron Clyne said the acquisition would be "earnings per share neutral".AMP came back with a revised offer on December 14, with a package that was the equivalent of $6.22 a share - a 53 per cent premium to the Axa share price at the time.With the news yesterday that the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission was opposed to NAB and Axa merging, the underbidder has the initiative.AMP representatives were offering a little background yesterday, saying that the company still sees Axa as a good strategic acquisition "at the right price".You would have to assume that the price has come down a fair bit since December. Axa shares were trading in a range between $5.75 and $6 in November and then hit a peak above $6.50 after the bidding became a two-horse race. But since mid year trading has been in a range between $5.25 and $5.50.Axa's weaker share price reflects the change in overall sharemarket conditions, as well as uncertainty about the ACCC decision and some earnings weakness.Axa reported a net profit of $219 million for the six months to June, down 19 per cent on the previous corresponding period. Investment earnings were down and so were funds under management and administration.When AMP and NAB got into a duel late last year the wealth management industry was coming to the end of a strong recovery year. As AMP ponders its next move it is doing so in the context of a much more uncertain environment.

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