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Sell-side cut 2008 profit forecasts

26 October 2007 4:35PM
The combination of ANZ's 2007 result coming in at the bottom end of expectations and the market being surprised by the bank's $1 billion capital raising (via the dividend re-investment plan underwriting), led to ANZ shares being sold off 3.7 per cent in yesterday's trading.In parallel, sell side analysts made cuts to their estimates for the year to September 2008 with all but one broker cutting earnings per share forecasts. Brokers reduced EPS forecasts for next year by between by 0.6 per cent and three per cent. Brokers reduced dividend forecasts as well, with estimates trimmed by one to five cents per share (to a median 2008 estimate of $1.48). Only UBS maintains a buy recommendation on ANZ and JP Morgan has the only sell on the stock (having reduced their recommendation in the twenty-four hours before ANZ released its results). Interestingly, JP Morgan was also the only broker to upgrade their earnings forecasts, raising 2008 estimates by 0.2 per cent (a slight increase on their already bearish pre-result views).   Qualitative commentary from the brokers focused on ANZ's $1 billion capital raising and the strong likelihood these funds will be invested in Asia (dilutive to near term earnings in both instances). Concerns over ANZ's organic growth profile were also highlighted: despite having plenty of "juice left in the tank" ANZ's consumer division could potentially slow, the turnaround in the institutional division remains uncertain, and ANZ faces several earnings headwinds (including currency translations, funding costs and the cessation of write-backs to credit provisions).

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