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New Government means probable changes ahead for RBNZ

20 October 2017 5:55PM
The surprise creation last night of new centre-left Government in New Zealand is expected to lead to changes to the Reserve Bank Act that sees the inclusion of full employment in its mandate alongside low inflation for the first time.  It is also expected to trigger a slowing of net migration and the introduction of a ban on foreign buying of existing homes. High migration and foreign buying have both supported economic growth and house prices over the last three years. New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters announced last night that his nationalist party had chosen to go into coalition with the Labour Party, with support from the Green Party on votes of budgetary supply and confidence. The combination will change the Government for the first time in nine years and see the appointment of a new Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, and a new Finance Minister, Grant Robertson. Peters he said he expected the Reserve Bank Act would be changed, saying the New Zealand dollar had been overvalued. It immediately fell just over one cent to 70.2 USc and by almost two Australian cents to 89.2 Australian cents. Peters, 73, said he had not secured his preferred policy of moving to a Singaporean model for monetary policy, which targets a currency level rather than an interest rate level. Ardern and Robertson later confirmed there would be reforms to the Reserve Bank Act, but did not give details. Labour and the Greens also campaigned on a shift to a formal committee style decision making system for the Official Cash Rate. Currently the decision is made solely by the Governor, although outgoing Governor Graeme Wheeler operated an internal committee for advising him on decisions anyway. Elsewhere, Ardern said she expected Labour's migration policy of reducing net migration by 20,000 to 30,000 or around a third would be implemented. That would suggest New Zealand First was unable to get its preferred cuts of closer to 60,000 net migrants per year than Labour's 30,000 maximum. Population growth powered by record high net migration of over 70,000 per year has driven much of New Zealand's economic growth in the last two years and helped support house prices. Peters said Labour and New Zealand First had agreed to implement its platform of restricting foreign buying of property, but did not give details. Ardern later said she had agreed to implement Labour's policy of banning foreign buyers of existing residential properties, which fell short of Peters' proposal for a full ban on foreign buying of both houses and freehold land across the country.

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