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Lower total losses for structured finance deals

15 September 2017 4:48PM
Of the US$11.1 trillion of Fitch-rated structured finance bonds issued across the globe between 2000 and 2016, 1.9 per cent has now been written off.  Fitch said in a recent report that it expected total losses to reach 3.2 per cent, down from the 4.0 per cent expectation based on 2014 data. This lesser estimate is primarily due to the improved performances of the asset class in the US RMBS and EMEA CMBS markets. Fitch expects total losses on SF bonds issued between 2000 and 2008 (currently at 4.4 per cent using 2016 data) to be lower than previously expected (2014 data: 4.9 per cent). Rapid home price increases have contributed to the decline in total loss expectations for US RMBS from this period (to 6.3 per cent, from 8.1 per cent based on 2014 data), according to the Fitch report.Despite the improvement, though, total losses in US RMBS still represent 49.0 per cent of global SF losses. Total losses expected on prime deals (2.6 per cent) are considerably lower than on Alt-A (13.5 per cent) and subprime (7.5 per cent). Repackaged RMBS bonds also contribute to the high losses.Transactions issued after 2008 benefit from higher quality collateral portfolios and increased credit protection. Consequently, the total loss on each post-crisis vintage is less than 0.05 per cent, whereas total losses on pre-crisis vintages peak at 9.9 per cent for 2006 transactions. This adds up to losses on tranches issued prior to 2009 contributing 99.9 per cent of the total structured finance losses among securities rated by Fitch.On Fitch's analysis, investors are looking at global CMBS total losses of 3.4 per cent, compared to an expected 4.9 per cent, based on 2014 data; this is due to substantial new US issuance and lower loss expectations in EMEA. No losses have been realised or are expected on APAC RMBS, French, German and UK ABS and prime and buy-to-let UK RMBS. Total losses of 0.001 per cent are expected on Dutch prime RMBS and 0.02 per cent on APAC ABS.The performance of global ABS transactions - especially those secured by consumer assets - has remained strong. Fitch expects total losses of 0.2 per cent on global ABS.

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