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Low EPS growth for banks in 2012

10 October 2011 5:56PM
Sell-side analysts are expecting the three major banks that are due to report their 2010/11 financial results over the coming month to produce growth in earnings per share of between nine and 18 per cent. But the outlook for the 2011/12 financial year is for a significant reduction in growth in earnings.The median of the forecasts of analysts tracked by the FinAnalysis database is for National Australia Bank, which reports on October 27, to produce earnings of 246.2 cents per share - an increase 18.7 per cent on the 2009/10 result.Analysts expect NAB's EPS growth to slip back to 8.7 per cent in the 2011/12 financial year.Analysts are anticipating that when Westpac reports on November 2, it will show a nine per cent increase in earnings per share. The median estimate for 2011/12 is for EPS growth of 3.8 per cent.And they expect that when ANZ reports on November 3, it will show a 10.7 per cent increase in earnings per share. The median estimate for the following year is for EPS growth of 3.4 per cent.In a report issued last week, Citi's banking analyst, Craig Williams, said the outlook for growth in Australian bank earnings has been cut back sharply due to the impact of the slowing global economy. Citi's earnings forecasts for the big banks in 2011/12 have been cut by as much as six per cent.Williams' forecasts are for EPS growth of growth of zero to two per cent, and he has cut target prices "to reflect the prospect of further reductions in confidence".The report said: "All major banks now are on hold, with NAB downgraded from Buy."Citi economists have reduced their global economic growth forecasts for 2012 from 3.7 per cent, which was their position just two months ago, to 2.9 per cent.Citi has lifted its bad debt estimates by around 30 to 40 per cent for 2011/12. It expects that the he losses will come from commercial property companies and other small corporate customers. On the positive side, the banks' focus on productivity initiatives has picked up, providing scope for cost reductions to assist earnings.Citi said: "We see little separating the four majors on valuation, but perhaps favour Westpac, given its urgency on productivity and lower risk asset mix."With current share valuations pricing in little growth, we acknowledge that bank valuations appear attractive. In our view, however, until there are signs that the macro backdrop is improving and a credible solution to the European debt crisis is found, we do not expect these stocks to materially re-rate."

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