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Credit signals flash in bellwether sectors

12 October 2012 5:35PM
One pointer to a worsening in credit quality for lenders is a rise in the level of adverse indicators relating to two bellwether industries - construction and transport.Dun & Bradstreet has extracted data from its scores on the likelihood a company will experience financial stress in the coming 12 months, a data-set used by many lenders. The D&B data looks at the percentage of transport and construction firms that have had their risk rating downgraded.Banking Day asked for this data, given the run of company failures since the second quarter of 2012 in this sector, to try and align anecdotal reporting of the rising incidence of company stress with an analysis of the financial data concerning what are mainly private companies.D&B produces a "risk score" that evaluates the probability that a business will experience financial distress within the next 12 months. The D&B score uses around 25 variables, including financial statements, trade payment history, company age and structure, defaults and judgements.According to D&B, in June 2012, 12.8 per cent of construction firms and 12.7 per cent of transport firms were downgraded; this is up from 10.7 per cent and 9.6 per cent, respectively, in the March 2012 quarter.D&B estimated that the risks of financial distress in construction and transport were 5.6 percentage points higher and 5.5 percentage points higher, respectively, than the national average.

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