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Analysts support BOQ equity-raising, query growth prospects

02 April 2012 4:48PM
Macquarie Securities has downgraded Bank of Queensland to Underperform, after the bank's capital-raising and provisioning announcements last week. Macquarie's view is that there is "significant uncertainty around the BOQ model and earnings outlook."Citi - the adviser to BOQ on its present capital-raising - has retained a Neutral recommendation on BOQ stock, although it has made big cuts to its forecasts. Citi cut its forecast for Bank of Queensland's 2011/12 earnings per share by 94 per cent and its 2012/13 EPS forecast by 13 per cent Last Monday, BOQ announced a A$450 million equity-raising, made up of a $150 million institutional placement (which has already been completed) and a $300 million institutional and retail entitlement offer.The bank will issue 74 million new shares - equivalent to 32 per cent of existing outstanding shares.The new equity will take the bank's core tier-one capital position from 6.4 per cent to 8.6 per cent.The bank also announced that it would report a loss of $91 million when it reports its interim results in April. The loss is largely the result of an impairment expense of $328 million - up from $134 million in the previous corresponding period.The offer price for the new shares under the placement and entitlement offers is $6.05. BOQ shares were extremely volatile last week, moving from below $7.10 at the start of the week to more than $7.60, before settling back to a close of $7.28 on Friday.Macquarie Securities has set a 12-month price target of $6.85 on the stock. Citi has set a price target of $7.15.With the dilutionary impact of the new shares, Friday's close of $7.28 would mean a price of about $7 when the new shares are issued. Macquarie's view is that there are too many unknowns to support the bank. It said: "While the recent capital-raising does remove some of the balance sheet concerns, there remains significant uncertainty around the BOQ model and earnings outlook, given the pending strategic review. "It is unclear how BOQ can earn at least its cost of equity. The fundamental challenge of earning a reasonable return remains. We forecast that BOQ may be able to earn around eight per cent return on equity in 2012/13. "Improving ROE will be no easy task, given the ongoing intermittent pressures on funding, under-investment in systems and deteriorating Queensland economy."Citi said the balance sheet was being strengthened but the bank still had to do something about its low return on equity.  Macquarie said: "BOQ announced that they will soon bring their strategy to the market. The strategic review is no silver bullet and we anticipate that earnings outcomes for the bank are likely to remain uncertain, given the level and scope of change being executed by the new CEO."

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