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Analysts see further slide in Bendigo's earnings

27 February 2012 6:10PM
Sell-side analysts expect Bendigo and Adelaide Bank's slide in earnings to continue into the second half of this financial year and into next year as well.Last week, the bank reported a net profit of A$57.9 million for the six months to December, down 67 per cent on the previous corresponding period. A write-down in the goodwill value of its margin lending business, Leveraged Equities, was responsible for the steep decline.Cash profit, the bank's preferred measure, was up a fraction on the previous corresponding period but down half-on-half.Following the interim report, Macquarie Equities downgraded its forecast for Bendigo and Adelaide's full-year cash profit by five per cent, and by three per cent for 2012/13.Macquarie has a neutral recommendation on Bendigo and Adelaide stock.Goldman Sachs reduced its forecast for full-year cash earnings per share by 0.3 per cent, and by five per cent for 2012/13.Macquarie's commentary said: "The outlook remains uncertain for the smaller banks, given continued deposit competition, weak credit demand, softer house prices and slower domestic conditions.""We factor in softer margins and weaker non-interest income," it said.Goldman Sachs' commentary said: "We maintain our sell rating, given the profit trend appears weak relative to peers. There are limited growth options in sight."While recent acquisitions [Rural Bank and Bank of Cyprus] are likely to provide some incremental uplift, the benefits of such options are, in our view, overshadowed by the impact of credit growth remaining weak. "In addition, sustained volatility or poor market conditions are likely to extend the slow decline of Bendigo and Adelaide's margin lending portfolio."Positives that Macquarie highlighted included Bendigo and Adelaide's strong capital position, its lower than expected charge for bad and doubtful debts, and good cost control.However, Goldman Sachs said the annualised ratio of bad debts to gross loans and acceptances was seven basis points. This is half the 10-year average of 14 basis points for this ratio at Bendigo bank, which may suggest a rise in the bad debt charge is likely.

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