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Analysts see business lending recovery

12 June 2012 4:55PM
Sell-side analysts have taken a more positive view of the business credit market, following the release of the latest lending data.Business credit, reported by the Reserve Bank, rose by 0.3 per cent in February and increased by 0.7 per cent in both March and April, lifting annual growth to 2.3 per cent.Australian Prudential Regulation Authority figures show a 0.5 per cent increase in business lending in April and an increase of 1.8 per cent over the three months to April - suggesting an annual growth rate of six to seven per cent.Westpac senior economist Andrew Hanlan said in a note that the business appetite for credit started to improve in 2011. Business credit rose 1.2 per cent in 2011, compared with a fall of 2.2 per cent in 2010.However, Hanlan pointed out that the rate of business credit growth is below the rate of business investment. Hanlan said: "At this stage, firms have relied more upon internal funds to finance a lift in business investment expenditure. Business credit growth remains relatively weak."Deutsche Bank believes a business credit recovery is underway. In a note issued on June 1, it said: "We see a recovery in business lending growth."Citi also highlighted the "slow build" in business credit growth over the past year. The two banks best placed to exploit a sustained recovery in business lending are ANZ and National Australia Bank. According to Deutsche Bank, 31.7 per cent of ANZ's gross loans and advances (GLAs) are business loans and 38.7 per cent of NAB's GLAs are business loans.Only 22.9 per cent of Commonwealth Bank's and 21.4 per cent of Westpac's GLAs are business loans.Among the smaller banks, 28.7 per cent of Suncorp's GLAs are business loans, 20.7 per cent of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank's GLAs are business loans, while the percentages are 18 per cent for Bank of Queensland and 7.5 per cent for ING Direct.ANZ and NAB are also doing well in terms of loan growth. According to APRA's figures, ANZ's business loan book grew by 1.9 per cent in April and by 2.7 per cent over the three months to April.NAB's business loan book grew by 0.1 per cent in April and by 1.9 per cent over the three months to April.Commonwealth Bank's business loan book reduced by 0.6 per cent in April and grew by 1.6 per cent over the three months to April. Westpac's book grew by 0.6 per cent in April and by 1.8 per cent over the three months.Deutsche has Buy recommendations on ANZ, Commonwealth Bank and Bank of Queensland. It has Hold recommendations on NAB and Westpac.

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