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Analyst forecasts of CBA driven by sentiment

16 August 2007 4:21PM
At the mid-point, broker estimates for Commonwealth Bank's 2007 profit, measured in earnings per share, were spot on. However this masks significant divergence as half of the brokers' EPS forecasts were up to 2.9 per cent too low and the other half were up to 3 per cent too high. The full year dividend of $2.56 per share was two and a half cents above expectations (only three brokers' estimates were too high). Similarly, although the median broker forecast for the 2008 financial year EPS was upgraded by just 40 basis points overnight the range was broad with Credit Suisse upgrading its FY08 EPS forecasts by 2.4 per cent and UBS downgrading by 3 per cent. Dividend expectations for FY08 were increased by a median 4 cents per share. However two brokers pushed up their dividend estimates by 12 cents per share (a relatively large 4.4 per cent upgrade) and two increased their dividend forecasts by 8 cents per share (a 2.9 per cent upgrade). Median FY09 EPS estimates were increased by 80 basis points with the range a tighter 100 to 200 basis points. Median FY09 dividend forecasts were increased by 5 cents per share (a 1.5 per cent upgrade).Interestingly, sentiment may be playing a role in the broker's forecasts as three of the four brokers with a buy recommendations on CBA downgraded their FY08 EPS forecasts while the highest percentage upgrades came from the two brokers with sell recommendations. On the qualitative side most analysts were under whelmed with the subdued revenue performance of CBA's consumer division and voiced concerns that the recent share market slump would create headwinds for wealth management funds inflows and earnings.

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